Why San Francisco Real Estate Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

As the 2024 Presidential election approaches, it’s natural to wonder how this might impact the San Francisco housing market, especially if you’re considering investing or making a move. Here’s what you need to know about election year trends and why they matter.

Election Years Often Mean Temporary Slowdowns in Home Sales

Every fall, San Francisco’s real estate activity slows slightly, following typical seasonal patterns. During election years, however, the slowdown can be slightly more pronounced. According to BTIG data, sales historically dip a bit more in the month leading up to Election Day, driven largely by uncertainty. Many buyers and sellers hit pause, waiting for the post-election landscape to come into focus.

This year, San Francisco is no exception. A recent Redfin survey found that around 23% of first-time homebuyers plan to wait until after the election to buy. For our market, which includes a high percentage of investment-minded buyers, this sense of caution translates to a short-term softening in listings and transactions.

Home Sales Typically Rebound Strongly After the Election

The reassuring news? Election-related slowdowns are temporary. After the votes are counted, and political uncertainty settles, San Francisco’s real estate activity typically rebounds. Historically, U.S. home sales increase about 82% of the time in the year following a Presidential election, and the Bay Area generally follows suit.

This uptick happens because once the election is over, buyers and sellers feel a renewed sense of stability, making it easier to commit to real estate decisions. For San Francisco, a city where inventory can be tight and demand high, post-election periods often reveal pent-up interest from both local and out-of-town buyers, particularly those looking to make strategic, long-term investments.

What To Expect in 2025 for the San Francisco Market

All signs point to a solid year for San Francisco real estate in 2025. Forecasts suggest that while national home sales may reach around 5.2 million, our local market will also likely see an increase. Historically, this post-election rebound aligns with a renewed interest in long-term investment properties, high-end condos, and luxury single-family homes in top neighborhoods.

For investors, 2025 could present a prime opportunity. Those who delayed their purchases may be ready to jump back in, and with a strong local economy, high demand for rental properties, and resilient neighborhood appeal, San Francisco remains a wise choice for wealth-building through real estate.

Bottomline

While election years may bring a slight slowdown to San Francisco’s real estate activity, the effects are short-lived. Delayed sales typically come back stronger the following year. If you’re holding out for clarity in the market, remember that 2025 is projected to see increased activity and continued opportunities for growth. Whether you’re buying a primary residence or an investment property, the Bay Area remains a steady bet for building long-term wealth.