The Great Divide
For many years, San Francisco was one of the few cities in which the demand for condos was similar to the demand for single family homes. Both were sought after by buyers; both sold at similar speeds, and appreciated at similar rates. The San Francisco market moved, more or less, as one.

Now, those paths are diverging. The inventory of single family homes hovers a little below normal. Inventory of condos is stacking up month over month. The median sales price (MSP) of single family homes has hit a record high. That of condos is lower in the second quarter of 2020 than in the second quarters of both 2019 and 2018. The number of days on market has also begun to split. Single family homes remain at the 14 day mark (where they have lingered for the past three years). Condos, on the other hand, have climbed to around the 30 day mark.

What Changed?
Condos have always been an option for entry level buyers. However, it appears as though entry level neighborhoods have stolen that thunder. Neighborhoods in district 10 and district 3 have the appeal of single family homes at entry level prices.

Not every neighborhood follows this trend. Some of the most sought after neighborhoods in District 5 (Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Corona Heights, etc.) are still seeing stable activity in the condo market. That said, many condos in these neighborhoods are in smaller buildings, which gives them a leg up on their high-rise cousins. The Shelter in Place order may also have contributed to the interest in homes that offer more space (particularly private, outdoor space, which can be limited in larger buildings).

Where do we go From Here?
While the MSP of single family homes is high, unfortunately the market has not retained full momentum. Sales are down almost 50% in both condos and single family homes (one trend they still share). And, while the number of active listings has grown since the first quarter, it is still below what we would have expected in pre-pandemic times. As with so many aspects of our lives these days, we will continue to wait and see what 2020 has in store for us.

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