The Big Story

Quick Take:

Affordability remains a concern across the country despite lower interest rates compared to this time last year.
New homes are being added to the market, with the US seeing a 4.21% year-over-year increase in the number of new listings in February.
Inventory is getting back to healthier levels as we see backlogs begin to build across the country.

Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.

*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Affordability continues to be an issue nationwide

One of the headline issues in the real estate industry over the past few years has been, of course, the affordability (or rather the unaffordability) of homes. Unfortunately for new buyers, and more specifically first time home-buyers, this issue looks like it will persist throughout 2025. Mortgage rates remain comparatively high, and home prices largely have not given back their pandemic-era gains.

This has, of course, made the dreams of homeownership difficult to achieve for countless people around the country. With the median monthly principal and interest payment exceeding $2,100 per month on a nationwide level, people are struggling to afford the purchase of a new home!

New homes are starting to hit the market again

Fortunately for the market, there are plenty of new homes hitting the market though. While there are countless people sitting on the sidelines, waiting for lower interest rates to sell their current home and buy a new one, some of these holdouts are giving up and listing their homes. The writing seems to be on the wall, meaning more and more people are giving up on the thought that we will see lower interest rates in the short term, causing them to list their homes.

This has resulted in a pleasant jump in new home listings, despite us being at the tail end of the slow season. In the month of february, we saw more than 353,000 homes hit the market nationwide. This represents a 4.21% increase on a year-over-year basis, and an 8.15% increase on a month-over-month basis!

Inventories are beginning to build, offering more options for buyers

Since we are seeing new inventory hit the market and a steady level of demand, this is causing inventories to build, which is a great sign for those looking to enter the market! In the month of January, there were 1,180,000 homes listed on the market, representing a 16.83% increase on a year-over-year basis and a 3.51% increase on a month-over-month basis. At the same time, we’re seeing demand stagnate a bit, with 4,080,000 homes sold in January, representing a 2% increase when compared to last year and a 4.9% decrease when compared to last month!

Although a top-tier property will likely end up in a bidding war, no matter if it’s in Kansas City or Calabasas, this increase in inventory could mean that there are some deals to be had on listings that sit on the market for a few weeks.

While there are areas that deviate from the national trends, this is generally what's happening nationwide. Below, you'll find a local lowdown that provides you with the in-depth coverage of your area that you need. We will continue to monitor the housing market and overall economy to help guide you in buying or selling your home.

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Inventory continues to be a huge problem throughout San Francisco, with continued year-over-year declines.
Median sale prices continue to gyrate around the 2-year average, as supply and demand move roughly in-line with each other.
Single-family homes continue to be a hot commodity, while condos continue to sit on the market.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

What’s Moving: Sold Homes & Upcoming Listings in SF

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Median sales prices are stagnating throughout the East Bay

Although we saw some considerable year-over-year growth in median sale prices around this time last year in the East Bay, we’re not seeing that same growth right now. Instead, prices are stagnating a bit, with the median single-family home in both Alameda and Contra Costa counties being sold for roughly the same price that it was being sold for at this time last year.

Additionally, the median condo is being sold for quite a bit less than this time last year, with Contra Costa County seeing a 5.66% decrease and Alameda County seeing a 9.77% decrease. This stagnation in prices that we’re currently seeing can likely be attributed to the vast amount of inventory that we saw hit the market in the month of February.

East Bay inventory levels are steadily creeping up

One likely reason for the stagnation in median sale prices throughout the East Bay is that inventory levels jumped by a considerable margin in February. We saw a 16.82% increase in the number of active listings compared to January and a 40.17% increase compared to February of last year. This level of inventory was not seen until April/May of last year!

This suggests that people are ready to move, and they’re not letting interest rates play into their decision to sell or stay put! If we continue to see unprecedented increases in inventory like the one we saw last month, prices could start to decrease as inventory sits on the market. However, for now, the inventory is still moving!

Despite the inventory increasing, it’s still moving!

Although we just saw inventory levels skyrocket last month, demand remains strong, with the number of sold listings in the East Bay increasing by 2% on a year-over-year basis, and 35.55% on a month-over-month basis. As we mentioned in the prior section, we have to see demand pick up substantially in order for prices to stay where they’re currently at!

The East Bay continues to be a seller’s market

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.

Despite the drastic increase in supply that we saw last month, the single-family home market remains a strong sellers’ market within the East Bay, with Alameda County having just 1.6 months' worth of supply and Contra Costa County having just 1.8 months of supply. On the flip side, the condo market is not nearly as competitive, with Alameda County having 3.5 months' worth of supply and Contra Costa County having 2.8 months’ worth of supply.